| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.5% | 34% | +20.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 38.3% | 61.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 51.7% | 48.2% |
| logistic | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Mateus Alves | Gonzalo Villanueva | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1551 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1551 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Jose Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | H | Wilson Leite | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Mateus Alves | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Juan Carlos Prado Angelo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Guido Ivan Justo | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 0 | Mateus Alves |
| 05 May 2025 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | Mateus Alves |
| 30 Sep 2024 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 1 | Mateus Alves |
| 16 Sep 2024 | Gonzalo Villanueva | 0 - 2 | Mateus Alves |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.90 | 34.5% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.37 | 73.0% | 01 Oct 06:15 |