| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 66.1% | 70% | -4.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 77.0% | 22.9% |
| logistic | 58.9% | 41.1% |
| Enrico Dalla Valle | Federico Bondioli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1589 | 1516 |
| Surface Elo | 1589 | 1516 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.90 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.13 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 43 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Federico Bondioli | 2 - 1 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Gabriele Piraino | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Luca Potenza | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Enrico Dalla Valle | 1 - 2 | L |
| 31 Aug | A | Federico Arnaboldi | 0 - 1 | L |
| 13 Jul | H | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Jul | H | Matyas Fuele | 2 - 0 | W |
| 13 Jul | H | Sumit Nagal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Enrico Dalla Valle | 2 - 1 | Federico Bondioli |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.70 | 37.0% | 13 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 13 Oct 06:15 |