| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 64.4% | 69% | -5.1% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 56.3% | 43.6% |
| logistic | 57.0% | 43.0% |
| Guido Ivan Justo | Pedro Sakamoto | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1610 | 1471 |
| Surface Elo | 1610 | 1471 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 30 Sep | H | Franco Roncadelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Gustavo Heide | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Tomas Barrios Vera | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Gonzalo Villanueva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Pedro Sakamoto | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Santiago De La Fuente | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Eduardo Ribeiro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Sep | H | Goncalves, Joao | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Guido Ivan Justo | 2 - 0 | Pedro Sakamoto |
| 29 Apr 2024 | Guido Ivan Justo | 2 - 1 | Pedro Sakamoto |
| 21 Aug 2023 | Guido Ivan Justo | 0 - 2 | Pedro Sakamoto |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 01 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.44 | 69.4% | 01 Oct 06:15 |