| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 51.5% | 55% | -3.7% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 76.9% | 77% | -0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 67.4% | 73% | -5.5% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 64.1% | 59% | +5.2% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 64.0% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 22.7% | 25.6% | 51.8% |
| xgboost | 25.0% | 21.9% | 53.1% |
| logistic | 26.8% | 26.9% | 46.3% |
| Monza | Napoli | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1564 | 1772 |
| Surface Elo | 1564 | 1772 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.33 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 5 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 4 W · 1 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Torino | 2 - 3 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Cagliari | 4 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Cagliari | 4 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Cagliari | 1 - 1 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Roma | 3 - 3 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Roma | 3 - 3 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Spezia | 3 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Bodoe/Glimt | 4 - 3 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Venezia | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Apr 2025 | Monza | 0 - 1 | Napoli |
| 29 Sep 2024 | Napoli | 2 - 0 | Monza |
| 07 Apr 2024 | Monza | 2 - 4 | Napoli |
| 29 Dec 2023 | Napoli | 0 - 0 | Monza |
| 14 May 2023 | Monza | 2 - 0 | Napoli |
| 21 Aug 2022 | Napoli | 4 - 0 | Monza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.81 | 55.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.06 | 24.6% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.54 | 22.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.70 | 58.8% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.20 | 45.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |