| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 72.3% | 84% | -11.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 63.0% | 37.0% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 73.3% | 26.7% |
| logistic | 72.0% | 28.0% |
| Mark Lajal | Lucas Poullain | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1753 | 1553 |
| Surface Elo | 1753 | 1553 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.67 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.67 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 12 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | A | Lucas Poullain | 1 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Thomas Faurel | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | David Goffin | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Titouan Droguet | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Joel Schwaerzler | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Remy Bertola | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Mark Lajal | 2 - 1 | W |
| 16 Sep | H | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 14 Sep | A | Clement Chidekh | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Lucas Poullain | 2 - 1 | Mark Lajal |
| 23 Sep 2024 | Lucas Poullain | 1 - 2 | Mark Lajal |
| 12 Feb 2024 | Lucas Poullain | 0 - 2 | Mark Lajal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 4.00 | 25.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.22 | 82.0% | 29 Sep 06:15 |