| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 63.4% | 75% | -11.8% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 82.0% | 17.9% |
| logistic | 60.3% | 39.7% |
| Jiri Lehecka | Nuno Borges | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1979 | 1873 |
| Surface Elo | 1979 | 1873 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.80 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Oct | H | Nuno Borges | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Jiri Lehecka | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | H | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Facundo Diaz Acosta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Novak Djokovic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct 2026 | Jiri Lehecka | 2 - 1 | Nuno Borges |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.45 | 29.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |