| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 46.7% | 50% | -3.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 74.8% | 81% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 61.2% | 67% | -5.4% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 55.2% | 64% | -8.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 49.8% | 25.1% | 25.1% |
| xgboost | 39.0% | 30.7% | 30.3% |
| logistic | 42.3% | 26.3% | 31.4% |
| Carlisle | Harrogate | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1541 | 1462 |
| Surface Elo | 1541 | 1462 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.67 | 2.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.17 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 5 W · 3 D |
| 24 Oct | A | Solihull | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | A | Solihull | 2 - 1 | W |
| 10 Oct | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Kidderminster | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Aldershot | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Sutton | 3 - 1 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Sutton | 3 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Bury | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Woking | 1 - 0 | W |
| 08 Mar 2025 | Harrogate | 1 - 0 | Carlisle |
| 19 Oct 2024 | Carlisle | 1 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 04 Feb 2023 | Carlisle | 0 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 08 Nov 2022 | Harrogate | 3 - 3 | Carlisle |
| 23 Apr 2022 | Harrogate | 3 - 0 | Carlisle |
| 23 Nov 2021 | Carlisle | 0 - 2 | Harrogate |
| 24 Apr 2021 | Carlisle | 1 - 1 | Harrogate |
| 16 Feb 2021 | Harrogate | 1 - 0 | Carlisle |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.20 | 31.2% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.70 | 27.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.57 | 63.7% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.30 | 43.5% | 27 Oct 06:15 |