| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.1% | 61% | -6.5% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Draw or away | 77.6% | 85% | -7.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 69.4% | 78% | -9.1% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.5% | 64% | -4.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 57.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 26.4% | 25.0% | 48.6% |
| xgboost | 24.6% | 19.8% | 55.6% |
| logistic | 18.6% | 26.4% | 55.0% |
| Crawley Town | Chesterfield | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1319 | 1536 |
| Surface Elo | 1319 | 1536 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.20 | 2.00 |
| Form trend | 0.10 | -0.10 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 0.00 | 2.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Rest days | 21 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 2 D |
| 06 Oct | H | Bromley | 4 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Milton Keynes Dons | 1 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Grimsby | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Cheltenham | 1 - 3 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Tranmere | 4 - 2 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Tranmere | 4 - 2 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | A | Cheltenham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Sep | H | Port Vale | 1 - 1 | D |
| 21 Feb 2026 | Crawley Town | 1 - 1 | Chesterfield |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Chesterfield | 2 - 2 | Crawley Town |
| 03 Feb 2018 | Chesterfield | 1 - 2 | Crawley Town |
| 17 Oct 2017 | Crawley Town | 0 - 2 | Chesterfield |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.67 | 59.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.60 | 21.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.56 | 64.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.35 | 42.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |