OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
🇫🇷 Ligue 1 · Saturday 17 October 2026, 18:45 UTC · finished
Troyes 0.60 1 - 3 0.80 Lens
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 53.7%53%+0.5%✓ hit
DCHome or away 78.4%79%-0.5%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 70.2%70%+0.3%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 59.1%63%-4.4%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 56.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson16.2%21.1%62.8%
xgboost27.3%22.2%50.4%
logistic26.1%25.6%48.3%
Inputs the models saw
TroyesLens
Elo (pre-match)15391736
Surface Elo15391736
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.600.80
Form trend0.60-0.60
Season points per game0.671.17
Season goals for / game0.671.83
Season goals against / game2.171.67
Rest days67
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W5 W · 1 D
Troyes: last 5
11 OctHMarseille0 - 2L
11 OctHMarseille0 - 2L
19 SepAAngers0 - 2L
13 SepALille0 - 2L
06 SepHStrasbourg2 - 6L
Lens: last 5
13 OctHSporting0 - 2L
09 OctHLyon2 - 1W
09 OctHLyon2 - 1W
18 SepAMonaco1 - 2L
13 SepALe Mans2 - 2D
Head to head
28 Jan 2023Troyes1 - 1Lens
09 Sep 2022Lens1 - 0Troyes
14 May 2022Troyes1 - 3Lens
05 Nov 2021Lens4 - 0Troyes
04 Feb 2020Lens1 - 0Troyes
24 Aug 2019Troyes2 - 0Lens
28 Jan 2019Troyes1 - 0Lens
18 Aug 2018Lens2 - 0Troyes
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away1.7557.1%17 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2draw3.9025.6%17 Oct 19:45
Bet3651X2home4.3323.1%17 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.6759.9%17 Oct 19:45
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.2045.5%17 Oct 19:45
SportyBet1X2away1.9152.4%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw4.0524.7%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.9925.1%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5863.3%17 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4540.8%17 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:55 UTC