| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 68.1% | 79% | -10.7% | |
| DC | Home or draw | 89.0% | 94% | -5.3% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 86.1% | 92% | -6.4% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 65.2% | 70% | -5.0% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 56.1% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 57.9% | 23.9% | 18.2% |
| xgboost | 83.5% | 8.4% | 8.1% |
| logistic | 77.4% | 16.5% | 6.1% |
| Middlesbrough | Charlton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1659 | 1470 |
| Surface Elo | 1659 | 1470 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| Form trend | -0.20 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 2.20 | 0.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.40 | 2.20 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 23 Oct | A | Bolton | 5 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct | A | Bolton | 5 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Boreham Wood | 1 - 7 | L |
| 17 Oct | H | Cardiff | 2 - 2 | D |
| 17 Oct | H | Cardiff | 2 - 2 | D |
| 24 Oct | H | Norwich | 1 - 3 | L |
| 24 Oct | H | Norwich | 1 - 3 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Watford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Oct | A | Watford | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | A | Burnley | 2 - 2 | D |
| 11 Mar 2026 | Middlesbrough | 0 - 1 | Charlton |
| 09 Dec 2025 | Charlton | 1 - 2 | Middlesbrough |
| 07 Mar 2020 | Charlton | 0 - 1 | Middlesbrough |
| 07 Dec 2019 | Middlesbrough | 1 - 0 | Charlton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 10.38 | 9.6% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.71 | 14.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.43 | 69.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.95 | 33.9% | 30 Oct 06:15 |