| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 51.1% | 58% | -7.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| logistic | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Moez Echargui | Daniel Masur | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1586 | 1573 |
| Surface Elo | 1586 | 1573 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Sep | H | Karl Poling | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Daniel Masur | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Sep | H | Luca Potenza | 2 - 1 | W |
| 07 Sep | H | Nicolai Budkov Kjaer | 1 - 2 | L |
| 07 Sep | A | Billy Harris | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | A | Maxime Janvier | 2 - 0 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Murphy Cassone | 1 - 2 | L |
| 21 Sep | H | Matteo Martineau | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep | H | Moez Echargui | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | A | Leonardo Rossi | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Sep 2026 | Daniel Masur | 2 - 1 | Moez Echargui |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |