| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 65.8% | 30% | +36.1% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 90.6% | 56% | +34.5% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 87.5% | 40% | +47.9% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.1% | 65% | -3.3% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.0% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 85.7% | 9.3% | 5.0% |
| xgboost | 55.7% | 28.1% | 16.1% |
| logistic | 84.5% | 12.3% | 3.1% |
| PSV Eindhoven | Vitesse | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1846 | 1426 |
| Surface Elo | 1846 | 1426 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 0.40 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.60 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 6 | 880 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 8 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 13 Oct | A | RB Leipzig | 0 - 1 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Roda JC Kerkrade | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Oct | A | Almere City | 0 - 3 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Heerenveen | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | A | Volendam | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | NAC Breda | 2 - 2 | D |
| 26 Sep | A | Heracles | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 May | H | Ajax | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep 2026 | Vitesse | 3 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 13 Apr 2024 | PSV Eindhoven | 6 - 0 | Vitesse |
| 19 Aug 2023 | Vitesse | 1 - 3 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 19 Mar 2023 | Vitesse | 1 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 21 Jan 2023 | PSV Eindhoven | 1 - 0 | Vitesse |
| 12 Feb 2022 | Vitesse | 0 - 5 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 20 Nov 2021 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 - 0 | Vitesse |
| 21 Feb 2021 | PSV Eindhoven | 3 - 1 | Vitesse |
| 25 Oct 2020 | Vitesse | 2 - 1 | PSV Eindhoven |
| 23 Feb 2020 | Vitesse | 1 - 2 | PSV Eindhoven |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.05 | 48.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.80 | 26.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.20 | 31.2% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.53 | 65.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.45 | 40.8% | 16 Oct 06:15 |