| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 39% | +9.2% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 76.1% | 80% | -4.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 60.6% | 53% | +7.6% | ✗ miss |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.4% | 63% | -6.5% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 53.9% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 29.7% | 23.1% | 47.1% |
| xgboost | 45.0% | 27.6% | 27.4% |
| logistic | 43.2% | 26.8% | 30.0% |
| Edinburgh City | Spartans | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1358 | 1416 |
| Surface Elo | 1358 | 1416 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.50 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 3 W | 4 W · 2 D |
| 03 Oct | A | Stranraer | 0 - 0 | D |
| 03 Oct | A | Stranraer | 0 - 0 | D |
| 22 Sep | H | Dundee United | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Kelty Hearts | 3 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Kelty Hearts | 3 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | Kelty Hearts | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | H | Kelty Hearts | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | H | Dundee | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 0 - 0 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Dumbarton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 08 Aug 2026 | Spartans | 2 - 2 | Edinburgh City |
| 04 Apr 2026 | Edinburgh City | 0 - 3 | Spartans |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Spartans | 0 - 0 | Edinburgh City |
| 27 Dec 2025 | Edinburgh City | 1 - 3 | Spartans |
| 04 Oct 2025 | Spartans | 0 - 1 | Edinburgh City |
| 03 May 2025 | Spartans | 3 - 1 | Edinburgh City |
| 15 Feb 2025 | Edinburgh City | 5 - 0 | Spartans |
| 28 Dec 2024 | Spartans | 1 - 0 | Edinburgh City |
| 12 Oct 2024 | Edinburgh City | 2 - 0 | Spartans |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.40 | 41.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.60 | 38.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.64 | 61.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.15 | 46.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |