| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 48.7% | 38% | +10.6% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or away | 75.2% | 74% | +0.9% | ✗ miss |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 61.7% | 53% | +8.3% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.3% | 55% | -2.6% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 51.3% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.1% | 27.3% | 33.6% |
| xgboost | 27.0% | 26.5% | 46.5% |
| logistic | 31.9% | 28.3% | 39.8% |
| Derby | Wrexham | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1501 | 1602 |
| Surface Elo | 1501 | 1602 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | 0.10 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 21 | 21 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 1 D |
| 10 Oct | A | Brentford | 2 - 4 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | H | Birmingham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Sep | H | West Brom | 0 - 1 | L |
| 19 Sep | H | Southampton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | H | Southampton | 2 - 1 | W |
| 11 Sep | A | West Ham | 0 - 6 | L |
| 08 Sep | H | Burnley | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | A | Swansea | 0 - 0 | D |
| 04 Jan 2026 | Derby | 1 - 2 | Wrexham |
| 27 Sep 2025 | Wrexham | 1 - 1 | Derby |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.65 | 37.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.39 | 29.5% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.79 | 35.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.05 | 48.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.83 | 54.6% | 09 Oct 06:15 |