| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.8% | 43% | +9.8% | ✗ miss |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.0% | 69% | +10.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.1% | 57% | +13.2% | void |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 66.0% | 69% | -2.9% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 65.7% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 51.9% | 22.7% | 25.4% |
| xgboost | 49.3% | 29.5% | 21.2% |
| logistic | 55.1% | 24.5% | 20.5% |
| Nijmegen | Groningen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1582 | 1555 |
| Surface Elo | 1582 | 1555 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.10 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 3.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 3.00 |
| Rest days | 6 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 4 W | 3 W · 1 D |
| 18 Oct | H | For Sittard | 2 - 2 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | Fortuna Sittard | 2 - 2 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Ajax | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | A | Ajax | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | H | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | H | Ajax | 2 - 5 | L |
| 18 Oct | H | Ajax | 2 - 5 | L |
| 11 Oct | A | Excelsior | 5 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Excelsior | 5 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Zwolle | 3 - 0 | W |
| 10 May 2026 | Groningen | 2 - 1 | Nijmegen |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Nijmegen | 2 - 0 | Groningen |
| 08 Feb 2025 | Groningen | 2 - 1 | Nijmegen |
| 03 Nov 2024 | Nijmegen | 6 - 0 | Groningen |
| 25 Apr 2023 | Groningen | 0 - 1 | Nijmegen |
| 26 Aug 2022 | Nijmegen | 1 - 1 | Groningen |
| 12 Mar 2022 | Groningen | 4 - 3 | Nijmegen |
| 31 Oct 2021 | Nijmegen | 3 - 0 | Groningen |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.76 | 36.2% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.88 | 25.8% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.33 | 42.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.45 | 69.0% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.75 | 36.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |