| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 74.0% | 82% | -8.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 18.2% | 81.7% |
| logistic | 27.0% | 73.0% |
| Elise Mertens | Iga Swiatek | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1741 | 1981 |
| Surface Elo | 1741 | 1981 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.33 |
| Rest days | 2 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 07 Oct | A | Coco Gauff | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Jelena Ostapenko | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Katie Volynets | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Qinwen Zheng | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Iga Swiatek | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Iva Jovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Donna Vekic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Xinyu Gao | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep | A | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Iva Jovic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 30 Sep 2026 | Elise Mertens | 2 - 0 | Iga Swiatek |
| 18 Mar 2025 | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | Iga Swiatek |
| 15 Apr 2024 | Elise Mertens | 0 - 2 | Iga Swiatek |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.22 | 82.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 4.60 | 21.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |