| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.4% | 50% | +4.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.2% | 45.7% |
| logistic | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Martin Landaluce | Ilia Simakin | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1695 | 1752 |
| Surface Elo | 1695 | 1752 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.00 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Mattia Bellucci | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Liam Draxl | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Keegan Smith | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Jie Cui | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Ilia Simakin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Martin Landaluce | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Luka Pavlovic | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Sep | A | Blake Ellis | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Ilia Simakin | 0 - 2 | Martin Landaluce |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.30 | 43.5% | 12 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.57 | 63.7% | 12 Oct 06:15 |