| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 49.9% | 52% | -1.6% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 76.3% | 76% | +0.4% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 65.4% | 67% | -1.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 67.9% | 72% | -4.0% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 60.5% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 28.4% | 24.5% | 47.1% |
| xgboost | 29.0% | 28.5% | 42.5% |
| logistic | 20.2% | 24.8% | 55.0% |
| Groningen | Ajax | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1569 | 1669 |
| Surface Elo | 1569 | 1669 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | -0.80 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 5.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 7 W · 1 D |
| 11 Oct | A | Excelsior | 5 - 1 | W |
| 11 Oct | A | Excelsior | 5 - 1 | W |
| 18 Sep | H | Zwolle | 3 - 0 | W |
| 12 Sep | A | Go Ahead Eagles | 1 - 1 | D |
| 06 Sep | H | Twente | 2 - 2 | D |
| 15 Oct | A | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Nijmegen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Nijmegen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Excelsior | 2 - 2 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Excelsior | 2 - 2 | D |
| 07 Mar 2026 | Groningen | 3 - 1 | Ajax |
| 02 Dec 2025 | Ajax | 2 - 0 | Groningen |
| 14 May 2025 | Groningen | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
| 06 Oct 2024 | Ajax | 3 - 1 | Groningen |
| 14 May 2023 | Groningen | 2 - 3 | Ajax |
| 14 Aug 2022 | Ajax | 6 - 1 | Groningen |
| 02 Apr 2022 | Groningen | 1 - 3 | Ajax |
| 25 Sep 2021 | Ajax | 3 - 0 | Groningen |
| 07 Mar 2021 | Ajax | 3 - 1 | Groningen |
| 04 Oct 2020 | Groningen | 1 - 0 | Ajax |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 4.10 | 24.4% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.43 | 29.1% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.39 | 71.9% | 16 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 16 Oct 06:15 |