| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 54.3% | 67% | -12.8% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.4% | 51.5% |
| logistic | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| Yanaki Milev | Carlos Sanchez Jover | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1544 | 1557 |
| Surface Elo | 1544 | 1557 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.57 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.86 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.71 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | A | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Ivan Gakhov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Daniel Siniakov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Francesco Passaro | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 2 - 0 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | H | Francesco Forti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Yanaki Milev | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Lorenzo Giustino | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Francesco Forti | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Carlos Sanchez Jover | 0 - 2 | Yanaki Milev |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.50 | 40.0% | 09 Oct 06:15 |