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form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-10

🎾 tennis_atp_shanghai_masters · Saturday 10 October 2026, 10:00 UTC · scheduled

Juan Manuel Cerundolo 1.20 10:00 2.40 Carlos Alcaraz

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Away win	74.8%	97%	-22.3%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.1%	35.2%
xgboost	20.8%	79.2%
logistic	15.9%	84.1%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	Carlos Alcaraz
Elo (pre-match)	1825	2276
Surface Elo	1825	2276
Form, last 5 (PPG)	1.20	2.40
Form trend	0.00	-0.60
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	2	4
Head-to-head (last 10)	0 W	1 W · 0 D

Juan Manuel Cerundolo: last 5

10 Oct	A	Carlos Alcaraz	0 - 2	L
08 Oct	H	Nicolas Mejia	2 - 0	W
08 Oct	H	Nicolas Mejia	2 - 0	W
30 Sep	H	Bu Yunchaokete	1 - 2	L
30 Sep	H	Yunchaokete Bu	1 - 2	L

Carlos Alcaraz: last 5

10 Oct	H	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	2 - 0	W
06 Oct	H	Jiri Lehecka	2 - 0	W
06 Oct	H	Jiri Lehecka	2 - 0	W
05 Oct	H	Jaume Munar	2 - 1	W
05 Oct	H	Jaume Munar	2 - 1	W

Head to head

10 Oct 2026	Carlos Alcaraz	2 - 0	Juan Manuel Cerundolo
08 Nov 2021	Carlos Alcaraz	1 - 0	Juan Manuel Cerundolo

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	14.80	6.8%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.01	99.0%	10 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	17.00	5.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.05	95.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	19.00	5.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	20.00	5.0%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	14.16	7.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	13.00	7.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	12.60	7.9%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.02	98.0%	10 Oct 06:01
GTbets	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	13.66	7.3%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	12.50	8.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.05	95.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	19.00	5.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Carlos Alcaraz	1.06	94.3%	10 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	20.00	5.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	13.00	7.7%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.04	96.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	14.45	6.9%	10 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	14.50	6.9%	10 Oct 06:15
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.02	98.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	9.40	10.6%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	12.50	8.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	12.50	8.0%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.02	98.0%	10 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	17.00	5.9%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.03	97.1%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	16.00	6.2%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Carlos Alcaraz	1.02	98.0%	10 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	13.00	7.7%	10 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:54 UTC