| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.2% | 55% | +5.0% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 54.3% | 45.5% |
| logistic | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| Felix Gill | Massimo Giunta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1626 | 1538 |
| Surface Elo | 1626 | 1538 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.60 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 1.71 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.36 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.73 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 10 Nov | H | Menelaos Efstathiou | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Nov | H | Matteo Martineau | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Nov | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Marcus Walters | 2 - 0 | W |
| 09 Nov | H | Francesco Forti | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Adrian Andreev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Nov | H | Belozertsev, Nikita | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | A | Henry Searle | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Maxim Zhukov | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.94 | 51.5% | 11 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.81 | 55.2% | 11 Nov 06:15 |