OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
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🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Premier League · Sunday 13 September 2026, 16:30 UTC · scheduled
Manchester United 2.00 16:30 2.00 Manchester City
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 38.0%31%+7.2%
DCHome or away 74.2%75%-0.6%
DNBHome (DNB) 51.2%39%+11.9%
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 62.5%65%-2.8%
BTTSBTTS yes 63.5%no line
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson43.4%25.0%30.9%
xgboost35.9%28.3%35.8%
logistic34.7%23.3%42.1%
Inputs the models saw
Manchester UnitedManchester City
Elo (pre-match)16801781
Surface Elo16801781
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.002.00
Form trend0.40-0.70
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.50
Rest days78
Head-to-head (last 10)3 W6 W · 1 D
Manchester United: last 5
06 SepAEverton2 - 2D
30 AugHIpswich5 - 2W
22 AugAHull0 - 2L
24 MayABrighton3 - 0W
17 MayHNottingham Forest3 - 2W
Manchester City: last 5
05 SepHCoventry1 - 0W
28 AugACrystal Palace4 - 1W
23 AugHBournemouth2 - 1W
24 MayHAston Villa1 - 2L
19 MayABournemouth1 - 1D
Head to head
17 Jan 2026Manchester United2 - 0Manchester City
14 Sep 2025Manchester City3 - 0Manchester United
06 Apr 2025Manchester United0 - 0Manchester City
15 Dec 2024Manchester City1 - 2Manchester United
03 Mar 2024Manchester City3 - 1Manchester United
29 Oct 2023Manchester United0 - 3Manchester City
14 Jan 2023Manchester United2 - 1Manchester City
02 Oct 2022Manchester City6 - 3Manchester United
06 Mar 2022Manchester City4 - 1Manchester United
06 Nov 2021Manchester United0 - 2Manchester City
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.1047.6%13 Sep 19:39
Bet3651X2draw3.8026.3%13 Sep 19:39
Bet3651X2home3.2530.8%13 Sep 19:39
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5365.4%13 Sep 19:39
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.5040.0%13 Sep 19:39
Generated 2026-09-14 00:12 UTC