| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.2% | 75% | -17.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 80.2% | 92% | -12.2% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 73.9% | 90% | -16.1% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 61.0% | 72% | -11.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 62.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 56.2% | 22.9% | 20.9% |
| xgboost | 56.2% | 22.7% | 21.1% |
| logistic | 59.9% | 22.2% | 18.0% |
| Luton | Forest Green | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1590 | 1465 |
| Surface Elo | 1590 | 1465 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.60 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.40 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 2.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Rest days | 3 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 03 Nov | A | Huddersfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 03 Nov | A | Huddersfield | 1 - 1 | D |
| 31 Oct | A | Peterborough United | 2 - 0 | W |
| 31 Oct | A | Peterboro | 2 - 0 | W |
| 27 Oct | H | Doncaster | 3 - 1 | W |
| 31 Oct | H | Harrogate | 2 - 2 | D |
| 31 Oct | H | Harrogate | 2 - 2 | D |
| 28 Oct | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Oct | H | Eastleigh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Chesham United | 5 - 0 | W |
| 28 Apr 2018 | Luton | 3 - 1 | Forest Green |
| 16 Dec 2017 | Forest Green | 0 - 2 | Luton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.00 | 12.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.80 | 17.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.33 | 75.2% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.38 | 72.5% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.00 | 33.3% | 07 Nov 06:15 |