| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 56.6% | 42% | +14.8% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 79.7% | 70% | +9.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 70.6% | 57% | +13.8% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.2% | 58% | -14.1% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 45.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.0% | 28.5% | 25.6% |
| xgboost | 45.4% | 26.3% | 28.3% |
| logistic | 40.9% | 30.3% | 28.8% |
| Oldham | Fleetwood Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1430 | 1448 |
| Surface Elo | 1430 | 1448 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 4 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Rochdale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Rochdale | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Chesterfield | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Tranmere | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | A | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | A | Barnet | 1 - 3 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Barnet | 1 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Newport County | 1 - 1 | D |
| 05 Sep | H | Shrewsbury | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Sep | H | Oldham | 1 - 1 | D |
| 01 Sep 2026 | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 1 | Oldham |
| 14 Feb 2026 | Oldham | 1 - 1 | Fleetwood Town |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Fleetwood Town | 1 - 1 | Oldham |
| 26 Dec 2017 | Oldham | 1 - 2 | Fleetwood Town |
| 09 Sep 2017 | Fleetwood Town | 2 - 2 | Oldham |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.50 | 28.6% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.20 | 45.5% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.73 | 57.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 22 Sep 06:15 |