| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 62.7% | 48% | +15.0% | abandoned |
| DC | Home or draw | 84.4% | 77% | +7.1% | abandoned |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 76.1% | 65% | +10.9% | abandoned |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.2% | 54% | -6.9% | abandoned |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 47.4% | no line | abandoned |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 42.9% | 26.8% | 30.3% |
| xgboost | 48.5% | 28.0% | 23.5% |
| logistic | 44.8% | 27.2% | 28.0% |
| Sunderland | Southampton | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1689 | 1665 |
| Surface Elo | 1689 | 1665 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.60 |
| Form trend | 0.50 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 7 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 12 Sep | H | Arsenal | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | A | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Fulham | 1 - 0 | W |
| 22 Aug | A | Ipswich | 1 - 2 | L |
| 24 May | H | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Sep | A | Wrexham | 1 - 2 | L |
| 12 Sep | H | Bristol City | 4 - 1 | W |
| 08 Sep | H | Swansea | 3 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Lincoln | 1 - 1 | D |
| 09 Mar 2024 | Southampton | 4 - 2 | Sunderland |
| 02 Sep 2023 | Sunderland | 5 - 0 | Southampton |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.40 | 29.4% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.10 | 47.6% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.82 | 54.9% | 20 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.85 | 54.0% | 20 Sep 06:15 |