| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 69.2% | 86% | -17.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 23.7% | 76.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 28.0% | 71.9% |
| logistic | 29.6% | 70.4% |
| Andrea Guerrieri | Alex Michelsen | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1652 | 1900 |
| Surface Elo | 1652 | 1900 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 2.00 |
| Rest days | 1 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 19 Oct | A | Alex Michelsen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Damm Jr, Martin | 2 - 1 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Kimmer Coppejans | 2 - 0 | W |
| 14 Oct | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Abdullah Shelbayh | 1 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Botic Van De Zandschulp | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 01 Oct | H | Carlos Alcaraz | 1 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Alex Michelsen | 2 - 0 | Andrea Guerrieri |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.16 | 86.2% | 19 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 5.70 | 17.5% | 19 Oct 06:15 |