| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 60.7% | 74% | -12.9% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 65.2% | 34.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 60.6% | 39.4% |
| logistic | 56.7% | 43.3% |
| Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1622 | 1540 |
| Surface Elo | 1622 | 1540 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.25 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 3 W · 0 D |
| 06 Oct | A | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Alex Barrena | 2 - 0 | W |
| 02 Oct | H | Barrios Vera, Marcelo Tomas | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Valerio Aboian | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Pedro Boscardin Dias | 0 - 1 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Lucas Andrade Da Silva | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 0 - 2 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 07 Aug 2023 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 07 Mar 2022 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 1 - 2 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 06 Dec 2021 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 0 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| 22 Nov 2021 | Genaro Alberto Olivieri | 2 - 1 | Matheus Pucinelli De Almeida |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.00 | 33.3% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.36 | 73.5% | 07 Oct 06:15 |