| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 54.3% | 59% | -4.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 48.2% | 51.8% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| logistic | 56.4% | 43.6% |
| Felix Gill | Matteo Martineau | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1632 | 1651 |
| Surface Elo | 1632 | 1651 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | -0.90 |
| Season points per game | 2.08 | 2.06 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.46 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 06 Nov | H | Jay Clarke | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | H | Buvaysar Gadamauri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Nov | H | Marcus Walters | 2 - 0 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Filip Misolic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Filip Misolic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 06 Nov | A | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Nov | A | Adrian Andreev | 2 - 1 | W |
| 03 Nov | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Oct | H | Otto Virtanen | 0 - 2 | L |
| 26 Oct | H | Otto Virtanen | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.10 | 47.6% | 07 Nov 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.70 | 58.8% | 07 Nov 06:15 |