| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.2% | 58% | -5.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 48.7% | 51.2% |
| logistic | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| markov | abstained: no serve/return ratings for this match | |
| Ariana Arseneault | Sara Saito | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1511 | 1528 |
| Surface Elo | 1511 | 1528 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.33 | 1.67 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.83 | 1.17 |
| Rest days | 3 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 24 Oct | H | Yuki Naito | 0 - 2 | L |
| 23 Oct | A | Sara Saito | 2 - 1 | W |
| 22 Oct | H | Katherine Sebov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 17 Oct | A | Mingge Xu | 0 - 2 | L |
| 16 Oct | A | Akli, Ayana | 2 - 0 | W |
| 23 Oct | H | Ariana Arseneault | 1 - 2 | L |
| 22 Oct | H | Linea Bajraliu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Clervie Ngounoue | 2 - 0 | W |
| 16 Oct | A | Rinaldo Persson, Kajsa | 1 - 2 | L |
| 15 Oct | A | Snells, Jamilah | 2 - 1 | W |
| 23 Oct 2026 | Sara Saito | 1 - 2 | Ariana Arseneault |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.00 | 50.0% | 27 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.72 | 58.1% | 27 Oct 06:15 |