| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 59.2% | 67% | -8.0% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 35.2% | 64.7% |
| logistic | 40.4% | 59.6% |
| Bernard Tomic | Matteo Arnaldi | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1704 | 1807 |
| Surface Elo | 1704 | 1807 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 3.00 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 2 | 5 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 08 Oct | H | Matteo Arnaldi | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | A | Terence Atmane | 2 - 1 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Yuta Shimizu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Fajing Sun | 2 - 1 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Yuta Shimizu | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Bernard Tomic | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 03 Oct | A | Carlos Alcaraz | 0 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 30 Sep | H | Rei Sakamoto | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct 2026 | Bernard Tomic | 0 - 2 | Matteo Arnaldi |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.49 | 67.1% | 07 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.75 | 36.4% | 07 Oct 06:15 |