| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.8% | 61% | -7.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 44.2% | 55.8% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| logistic | 58.5% | 41.5% |
| Andrea Guerrieri | Maks Kasnikowski | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1641 | 1580 |
| Surface Elo | 1641 | 1580 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.20 | 1.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 0.50 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 12 Oct | H | Abdullah Shelbayh | 1 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | A | Abdullah Shelbayh | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | August Holmgren | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | A | Anton Matusevich | 2 - 1 | W |
| 12 Oct | H | Cezar Cretu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Damir Dzumhur | 0 - 2 | L |
| 12 Oct | H | Stefano Travaglia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Cezar Cretu | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct 2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | 0 - 2 | Maks Kasnikowski |
| 30 Mar 2026 | Andrea Guerrieri | 2 - 1 | Maks Kasnikowski |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 14 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.60 | 62.5% | 14 Oct 06:15 |