| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 53.8% | 44% | +9.3% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 55.4% | 44.5% |
| logistic | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| Pierre Hugues Herbert | Sebastian Baez | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1638 | 1738 |
| Surface Elo | 1638 | 1738 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.20 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.30 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 0.75 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 1.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 9 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 20 Oct | H | Sebastian Baez | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | H | Maxim Mrva | 2 - 1 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Jurij Rodionov | 2 - 1 | W |
| 13 Oct | H | Norbert Gombos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 12 Oct | A | Hugo Gaston | 1 - 2 | L |
| 20 Oct | A | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Valentin Vacherot | 0 - 2 | L |
| 08 Oct | A | Marcos Giron | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | A | Marcos Giron | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct 2026 | Pierre Hugues Herbert | 2 - 0 | Sebastian Baez |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 2.25 | 44.4% | 20 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.69 | 59.2% | 20 Oct 06:15 |