| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.3% | 44% | +7.9% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or away | 78.0% | 76% | +2.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 68.3% | 60% | +8.6% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.9% | 64% | -0.5% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 62.2% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 39.7% | 25.7% | 34.6% |
| xgboost | 51.2% | 23.3% | 25.5% |
| logistic | 65.5% | 22.0% | 12.5% |
| Ajax | Atalanta | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1683 | 1701 |
| Surface Elo | 1683 | 1701 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.20 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 0.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| Season goals against / game | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Rest days | 4 | 4 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 18 Oct | A | Groningen | 5 - 2 | W |
| 18 Oct | A | Groningen | 5 - 2 | W |
| 15 Oct | A | HNK Hajduk Split | 1 - 2 | L |
| 10 Oct | H | Nijmegen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 10 Oct | H | Nijmegen | 1 - 1 | D |
| 18 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | Ac Milan | 2 - 3 | L |
| 18 Oct | A | AS Gubbio | 2 - 0 | W |
| 15 Oct | H | Pafos FC | 3 - 1 | W |
| 14 Oct | A | Latina Calcio | 0 - 2 | L |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.17 | 31.6% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.85 | 26.0% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.51 | 66.2% | 22 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.65 | 37.7% | 22 Oct 06:15 |