| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.3% | 60% | -1.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.3% | 59.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| logistic | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Marco Trungelliti | Matej Dodig | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1723 | 1858 |
| Surface Elo | 1723 | 1858 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 2.25 | 2.73 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.75 | 1.91 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.45 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 21 Oct | H | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Tiago Pereira | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | Matej Dodig | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Carlo Alberto Caniato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 21 Oct | H | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Oct | H | Joao Domingues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Marco Trungelliti | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | A | Marco Cecchinato | 2 - 1 | W |
| 19 Oct | A | Joao Domingues | 2 - 0 | W |
| 19 Oct 2026 | Marco Trungelliti | 2 - 0 | Matej Dodig |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.59 | 62.9% | 23 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.25 | 44.4% | 23 Oct 06:15 |