| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.2% | 54% | +5.2% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| logistic | 53.5% | 46.5% |
| Carlos Taberner | Elmer Moller | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1654 | 1625 |
| Surface Elo | 1654 | 1625 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.80 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.20 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 28 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 2 W · 0 D |
| 28 Sep | H | Samuele Pieri | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Elmer Moller | 2 - 0 | W |
| 26 Sep | A | Max Alcala Gurri | 0 - 2 | L |
| 25 Sep | A | Calvin Hemery | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Carlos Taberner | 0 - 2 | L |
| 01 Sep | H | Maks Kasnikowski | 1 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | A | Anton Matusevich | 0 - 2 | L |
| 17 Aug | H | Ivan Ivanov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 10 Aug | H | Rudolf Molleker | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Carlos Taberner | 2 - 0 | Elmer Moller |
| 03 Aug 2026 | Carlos Taberner | 0 - 2 | Elmer Moller |
| 20 May 2024 | Carlos Taberner | 1 - 2 | Elmer Moller |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.88 | 53.2% | 29 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.86 | 53.8% | 29 Sep 06:15 |