| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 57.6% | 74% | -16.4% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| poisson | 37.0% | 35.3% |
| xgboost | 61.1% | 38.9% |
| logistic | 52.5% | 47.5% |
| Daniel Rincon | David Jorda Sanchis | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1647 | 1583 |
| Surface Elo | 1647 | 1583 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.90 | 0.00 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.17 | 1.33 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.17 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 1 | 1 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 1 W · 0 D |
| 01 Oct | H | Laslo Djere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | A | Fausto Tabacco | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Dino Prizmic | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | David Jorda Sanchis | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Laslo Djere | 2 - 0 | W |
| 01 Oct | A | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Jesper De Jong | 1 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Inaki Montes De La Torre | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniel Rincon | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | H | Goncalo Marques | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep 2026 | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 2 | David Jorda Sanchis |
| 03 Jul 2023 | Daniel Rincon | 1 - 2 | David Jorda Sanchis |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.05 | 32.8% | 02 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.35 | 74.1% | 02 Oct 06:15 |