| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 53.0% | 37% | +16.0% | |
| DC | Home or draw selected | 79.2% | 66% | +13.2% | |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 72.1% | 51% | +21.2% | |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.5% | 43% | +19.0% | |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 63.5% | no line |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 43.4% | 25.0% | 30.9% |
| xgboost | 63.9% | 22.8% | 13.3% |
| logistic | 51.8% | 30.8% | 17.4% |
| Lecce | Monza | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1487 | 1337 |
| Surface Elo | 1487 | 1337 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 0.20 |
| Form trend | 0.90 | -0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 5 | 7 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 0 W · 4 D |
| 07 Sep | A | Cagliari | 0 - 1 | L |
| 31 Aug | H | Roma | 0 - 4 | L |
| 23 Aug | A | Venezia | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 May | H | Genoa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 17 May | A | Sassuolo | 3 - 2 | W |
| 06 Sep | A | Parma | 1 - 1 | D |
| 29 Aug | H | Udinese | 2 - 3 | L |
| 22 Aug | A | Inter | 1 - 4 | L |
| 24 May | A | Ac Milan | 0 - 2 | L |
| 18 May | H | Empoli | 1 - 3 | L |
| 16 Feb 2025 | Monza | 0 - 0 | Lecce |
| 15 Dec 2024 | Lecce | 2 - 1 | Monza |
| 27 Apr 2024 | Lecce | 1 - 1 | Monza |
| 17 Sep 2023 | Monza | 1 - 1 | Lecce |
| 28 May 2023 | Monza | 0 - 1 | Lecce |
| 11 Sep 2022 | Lecce | 1 - 1 | Monza |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet365 | 1X2 | away | 2.80 | 35.7% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | draw | 3.10 | 32.3% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | 1X2 | home | 2.70 | 37.0% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.30 | 43.5% | 13 Sep 19:39 |
| Bet365 | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.62 | 61.7% | 13 Sep 19:39 |