| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.3% | 60% | -1.9% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 40.9% | 59.1% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 34.7% | 65.3% |
| logistic | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Dane Sweeny | Tristan Schoolkate | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1584 | 1622 |
| Surface Elo | 1584 | 1622 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 0.60 |
| Form trend | 0.30 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 11 | 3 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 1 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 29 Sep | A | Alex Bolt | 0 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Petr Bar Biryukov | 2 - 0 | W |
| 29 Sep | H | Omar Jasika | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Taro Daniel | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Luciano Darderi | 0 - 3 | L |
| 01 Oct | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 30 Sep | A | Philip Henning | 2 - 0 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Harold Mayot | 1 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | A | Philip Henning | 2 - 0 | W |
| 22 Sep | A | Matteo Martineau | 1 - 2 | L |
| 02 Feb 2026 | Dane Sweeny | 2 - 1 | Tristan Schoolkate |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.66 | 60.2% | 05 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.30 | 43.5% | 05 Oct 06:15 |