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form, quantified · picks with an edge

Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-10-28

🎾 tennis_atp_vienna_open · Wednesday 28 October 2026, 13:40 UTC · scheduled

Lorenzo Musetti 3.00 13:40 1.20 Frances Tiafoe

Our markets (latest run)

Market	Most likely	Model	Bookmaker	Edge	Result
1X2	Home win	51.6%	50%	+1.6%

Model breakdown (1X2)

Model	Home	Away
poisson	37.0%	35.2%
xgboost	43.7%	56.2%
logistic	58.3%	41.7%
markov	abstained: unknown match format (best_of=0)

Inputs the models saw

	Lorenzo Musetti	Frances Tiafoe
Elo (pre-match)	2015	1993
Surface Elo	2015	1993
Form, last 5 (PPG)	3.00	1.20
Form trend	0.00	0.30
Season points per game	1.50	1.50
Season goals for / game	1.50	1.50
Season goals against / game	1.50	1.50
Rest days	3	17
Head-to-head (last 10)	3 W	4 W · 0 D

Lorenzo Musetti: last 5

25 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 0	W
25 Oct	H	Taylor Fritz	2 - 0	W
24 Oct	A	Flavio Cobolli	2 - 1	W
24 Oct	A	Flavio Cobolli	2 - 1	W
23 Oct	A	Luca Van Assche	2 - 1	W

Frances Tiafoe: last 5

11 Oct	A	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1 - 2	L
11 Oct	A	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	1 - 2	L
09 Oct	A	Yannick Hanfmann	2 - 0	W
09 Oct	H	Paterne Mamata	2 - 0	W
02 Oct	A	Arthur Fils	0 - 2	L

Head to head

22 Aug 2026	Frances Tiafoe	2 - 0	Lorenzo Musetti
26 May 2025	Frances Tiafoe	1 - 3	Lorenzo Musetti
12 Aug 2024	Frances Tiafoe	2 - 0	Lorenzo Musetti
12 Jun 2023	Frances Tiafoe	2 - 1	Lorenzo Musetti
08 May 2023	Frances Tiafoe	1 - 2	Lorenzo Musetti
02 Jan 2023	Frances Tiafoe	1 - 0	Lorenzo Musetti
15 Mar 2021	Frances Tiafoe	1 - 2	Lorenzo Musetti

Bookmaker lines

Book	Market	Outcome	Odds	Implied	As of
1xBet	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.82	54.9%	28 Oct 06:01
1xBet	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.03	49.3%	28 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.80	55.6%	28 Oct 06:01
888sport	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.00	50.0%	28 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.80	55.6%	28 Oct 06:01
BetAnything	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.05	48.8%	28 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.79	55.9%	28 Oct 06:01
Betclic (FR)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.96	51.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.85	54.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.14	46.7%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Frances Tiafoe	1.87	53.5%	28 Oct 06:01
Betfair sharp	h2h_lay	Lorenzo Musetti	2.18	45.9%	28 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.78	56.2%	28 Oct 06:01
BetOnline.ag	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.09	47.9%	28 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.82	54.9%	28 Oct 06:01
Betsson	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.96	51.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.92	52.1%	28 Oct 06:01
Coolbet	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.89	52.9%	28 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.82	54.9%	28 Oct 06:01
LeoVegas (SE)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.97	50.8%	28 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.80	55.6%	28 Oct 06:01
Marathon Bet	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.00	50.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.85	54.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.14	46.7%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Frances Tiafoe	1.87	53.5%	28 Oct 06:01
Matchbook	h2h_lay	Lorenzo Musetti	2.18	45.9%	28 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.82	54.9%	28 Oct 06:01
Nordic Bet	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.96	51.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.81	55.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Pinnacle sharp	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.09	47.9%	28 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.75	57.1%	28 Oct 06:01
PMU (FR)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.89	52.9%	28 Oct 06:01
SportyBet	1X2	away	1.86	53.8%	28 Oct 06:15
SportyBet	1X2	home	2.00	50.0%	28 Oct 06:15
Tipico	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.75	57.1%	28 Oct 06:01
Tipico	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.95	51.3%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.74	57.5%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (FR)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.86	53.8%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.82	54.9%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (NL)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.97	50.8%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.82	54.9%	28 Oct 06:01
Unibet (SE)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.97	50.8%	28 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.80	55.6%	28 Oct 06:01
William Hill	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.00	50.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.84	54.4%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (DE)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	2.00	50.0%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Frances Tiafoe	1.78	56.2%	28 Oct 06:01
Winamax (FR)	h2h	Lorenzo Musetti	1.96	51.0%	28 Oct 06:01

Generated 2026-10-30 15:00 UTC