OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-25
⚽ 2. Bundesliga · Sunday 25 October 2026, 12:30 UTC · finished
Holstein Kiel 0.60 3 - 0 1.00 Dresden
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 49.3%44%+5.8%✓ hit
DCHome or draw 75.8%71%+4.9%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 65.0%59%+6.5%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 51.0%43%+8.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 54.3%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson45.2%25.4%29.4%
xgboost47.6%27.9%24.5%
logistic48.9%26.5%24.5%
Inputs the models saw
Holstein KielDresden
Elo (pre-match)14011410
Surface Elo14011410
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.601.00
Form trend0.00-0.60
Season points per game0.631.00
Season goals for / game0.881.38
Season goals against / game1.381.88
Rest days87
Head-to-head (last 10)8 W1 W · 1 D
Holstein Kiel: last 5
16 OctHHertha Berlin0 - 0D
16 OctHHertha Berlin0 - 0D
09 OctABraunschweig0 - 1L
09 OctABraunschweig0 - 1L
19 SepHOsnabruck1 - 1D
Dresden: last 5
18 OctHMagdeburg2 - 0W
18 OctHMagdeburg2 - 0W
10 OctAOsnabruck1 - 1D
10 OctAOsnabruck1 - 1D
19 SepHHertha Berlin1 - 2L
Head to head
17 May 2026Dresden2 - 1Holstein Kiel
20 Dec 2025Holstein Kiel2 - 1Dresden
16 Apr 2022Dresden0 - 0Holstein Kiel
05 Nov 2021Holstein Kiel2 - 1Dresden
18 Jun 2020Holstein Kiel2 - 0Dresden
30 Nov 2019Dresden1 - 2Holstein Kiel
12 May 2019Holstein Kiel3 - 0Dresden
09 Dec 2018Dresden0 - 2Holstein Kiel
14 Apr 2018Dresden0 - 4Holstein Kiel
05 Nov 2017Holstein Kiel3 - 0Dresden
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away2.8834.7%25 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2draw3.6027.8%25 Oct 12:30
Bet3651X2home2.2045.5%25 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.5763.7%25 Oct 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under2.3542.5%25 Oct 12:30
SportyBet1X2away2.8035.7%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7027.0%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.4041.7%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.5763.7%25 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.3542.5%25 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 17:04 UTC