OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-13
⚽ England Championship · Tuesday 13 October 2026, 19:00 UTC · finished
Stoke 2.60 2 - 3 2.20 Middlesbrough
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 48.4%50%-1.2%✓ hit
DCHome or away 74.6%77%-2.5%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 63.4%66%-3.0%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 56.1%58%-2.2%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.5%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson30.6%27.5%41.8%
xgboost29.2%28.1%42.7%
logistic24.5%28.3%47.3%
Inputs the models saw
StokeMiddlesbrough
Elo (pre-match)15121637
Surface Elo15121637
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.602.20
Form trend-0.200.20
Season points per game3.002.00
Season goals for / game2.001.50
Season goals against / game1.001.00
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W4 W · 4 D
Stoke: last 5
13 OctAHalifax2 - 4L
10 OctABolton2 - 1W
10 OctABolton2 - 1W
19 SepHSheffield Utd2 - 1W
19 SepHSheffield Utd2 - 1W
Middlesbrough: last 5
10 OctHWolverhampton Wanderers1 - 0W
10 OctHWolverhampton Wanderers1 - 0W
19 SepABirmingham2 - 2D
19 SepABirmingham2 - 2D
15 SepHMillwall2 - 2D
Head to head
21 Jan 2026Stoke1 - 2Middlesbrough
30 Sep 2025Middlesbrough0 - 0Stoke
25 Feb 2025Stoke1 - 3Middlesbrough
28 Sep 2024Middlesbrough2 - 0Stoke
02 Mar 2024Stoke2 - 0Middlesbrough
28 Oct 2023Middlesbrough0 - 2Stoke
14 Mar 2023Middlesbrough1 - 1Stoke
17 Aug 2022Stoke2 - 2Middlesbrough
30 Apr 2022Middlesbrough3 - 1Stoke
11 Dec 2021Stoke0 - 0Middlesbrough
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.0449.0%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.8126.2%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.5927.9%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7457.5%13 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.1546.5%13 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:19 UTC