| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 52.6% | 57% | -4.5% | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| logistic | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Fausto Tabacco | Giorgio Tabacco | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1402 | 1435 |
| Surface Elo | 1402 | 1435 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.20 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | -0.30 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.33 | 0.67 |
| Rest days | 2 | 6 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 13 Oct | H | Baragiola Mordini, Tobia Costanzo | 2 - 0 | W |
| 07 Oct | A | Alexander Weis | 1 - 2 | L |
| 29 Sep | H | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 28 Sep | H | Alejo Sanchez Quilez | 2 - 1 | W |
| 28 Sep | A | Daniel Rincon | 0 - 2 | L |
| 13 Oct | H | Sciahbasi, Matteo | 2 - 1 | W |
| 08 Oct | H | Andrey Chepelev | 1 - 2 | L |
| 06 Oct | A | Alvarez Valdes, Luis Carlos | 2 - 0 | W |
| 24 Sep | H | Murgett, F | 1 - 2 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Kravchenko, G | 2 - 0 | W |
| No previous meetings in our data. |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.96 | 51.0% | 15 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.75 | 57.1% | 15 Oct 06:15 |