OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to 🎾 Tennis on 2026-09-29
🎾 ATP Challenger Curitiba, Brazil Men Singles · Tuesday 29 September 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva 2.40 2 - 0 1.20 Murkel Dellien
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 65.0%82%-17.1%✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeAway
markov65.7%34.3%
poisson37.0%35.3%
xgboost61.0%39.0%
logistic60.3%39.7%
Inputs the models saw
Joao Lucas Reis Da SilvaMurkel Dellien
Elo (pre-match)16021486
Surface Elo16021486
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.401.20
Form trend0.600.00
Season points per game1.501.50
Season goals for / game1.501.50
Season goals against / game1.501.00
Rest days225
Head-to-head (last 10)1 W1 W · 0 D
Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva: last 5
28 SepHMatheus Pucinelli De Almeida1 - 2L
28 SepHMurkel Dellien2 - 0W
07 SepHMika Brunold0 - 2L
07 SepAAlex Barrena2 - 0W
07 SepHLukas Neumayer2 - 0W
Murkel Dellien: last 5
28 SepAJoao Lucas Reis Da Silva0 - 2L
23 SepHJuan Pablo Varillas1 - 2L
22 SepHHernan Casanova2 - 0W
21 SepAJuan Pablo Varillas1 - 2L
21 SepAHernan Casanova2 - 0W
Head to head
28 Sep 2026Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva2 - 0Murkel Dellien
28 Apr 2025Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva2 - 0Murkel Dellien
13 Jan 2025Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva1 - 2Murkel Dellien
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away3.7526.7%29 Sep 06:15
SportyBet1X2home1.2480.7%29 Sep 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 18:17 UTC