| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 67.2% | 78% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|
| markov | 37.3% | 62.7% |
| poisson | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| xgboost | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| logistic | 33.1% | 66.9% |
| Kalin Ivanovski | Alejandro Moro Canas | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1475 | 1669 |
| Surface Elo | 1475 | 1669 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.80 | 2.40 |
| Form trend | -0.60 | 0.60 |
| Season points per game | 3.00 | 2.25 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| Rest days | 1 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 0 W · 0 D |
| 05 Oct | A | Federico Arnaboldi | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | A | Alejandro Moro Canas | 0 - 2 | L |
| 04 Oct | H | Giuseppe La Vela | 2 - 1 | W |
| 24 Sep | A | Claus Piening | 0 - 1 | L |
| 23 Sep | A | Patrik Homola | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Jonas Forejtek | 1 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct | H | Massimo Giunta | 2 - 1 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Andrej Martin | 2 - 0 | W |
| 05 Oct | H | Kalin Ivanovski | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | H | Alexander Ritschard | 0 - 2 | L |
| 05 Oct 2026 | Alejandro Moro Canas | 2 - 0 | Kalin Ivanovski |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 1.29 | 77.5% | 06 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 3.35 | 29.8% | 06 Oct 06:15 |