| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 59.3% | 71% | -11.4% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 83.6% | 90% | -6.6% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 77.0% | 87% | -10.3% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.2% | 56% | -2.7% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 54.4% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 61.9% | 23.0% | 15.1% |
| xgboost | 61.8% | 21.6% | 16.5% |
| logistic | 71.9% | 17.9% | 10.2% |
| Arsenal | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1928 | 1754 |
| Surface Elo | 1928 | 1754 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 2.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 20 | 19 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 7 W | 0 W · 1 D |
| 19 Sep | A | Brighton | 0 - 3 | L |
| 12 Sep | A | Sunderland | 2 - 0 | W |
| 06 Sep | H | Chelsea | 2 - 1 | W |
| 31 Aug | A | Aston Villa | 1 - 0 | W |
| 21 Aug | H | Coventry | 3 - 0 | W |
| 09 Oct | H | Stockport | 3 - 1 | W |
| 06 Oct | A | Tamworth | 0 - 1 | L |
| 22 Sep | A | Barnsley | 4 - 3 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Sep | H | Newcastle | 4 - 1 | W |
| 31 Jan 2026 | Leeds | 0 - 4 | Arsenal |
| 23 Aug 2025 | Arsenal | 5 - 0 | Leeds |
| 01 Apr 2023 | Arsenal | 4 - 1 | Leeds |
| 16 Oct 2022 | Leeds | 0 - 1 | Arsenal |
| 08 May 2022 | Arsenal | 2 - 1 | Leeds |
| 18 Dec 2021 | Leeds | 1 - 4 | Arsenal |
| 14 Feb 2021 | Arsenal | 4 - 2 | Leeds |
| 22 Nov 2020 | Leeds | 0 - 0 | Arsenal |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.06 | 12.4% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 5.07 | 19.7% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.43 | 69.9% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.81 | 55.2% | 09 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 2.05 | 48.8% | 09 Oct 06:15 |