OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-17
⚽ Germany Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC · finished
Schalke 04 1.00 0 - 1 1.40 Mainz
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Away win 45.8%43%+3.0%✓ hit
DCHome or away 75.9%76%+0.3%✓ hit
DNBAway (DNB) 57.3%58%-0.7%✓ hit
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 69.4%62%+7.3%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS yes 65.6%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson32.6%27.1%40.3%
xgboost35.2%24.5%40.4%
logistic36.3%27.2%36.5%
Inputs the models saw
Schalke 04Mainz
Elo (pre-match)15801618
Surface Elo15801618
Form, last 5 (PPG)1.001.40
Form trend0.000.20
Season points per game0.001.50
Season goals for / game1.003.50
Season goals against / game2.003.50
Rest days57
Head-to-head (last 10)6 W1 W · 3 D
Schalke 04: last 5
11 OctAFreiburg1 - 2L
11 OctAFreiburg1 - 2L
03 OctAAustria Lustenau1 - 0W
24 SepARW Oberhausen5 - 2W
20 SepHElversberg0 - 0D
Mainz: last 5
10 OctHBayer Leverkusen3 - 4L
10 OctHBayer Leverkusen3 - 4L
19 SepABorussia M´gladbach4 - 3W
19 SepABorussia Mönchengladbach4 - 3W
12 SepHEintracht Frankfurt1 - 3L
Head to head
05 May 2023Mainz2 - 3Schalke 04
09 Nov 2022Schalke 041 - 0Mainz
05 Mar 2021Schalke 040 - 0Mainz
07 Nov 2020Mainz2 - 2Schalke 04
16 Feb 2020Mainz0 - 0Schalke 04
20 Sep 2019Schalke 042 - 1Mainz
23 Feb 2019Mainz3 - 0Schalke 04
29 Sep 2018Schalke 041 - 0Mainz
09 Mar 2018Mainz0 - 1Schalke 04
20 Oct 2017Schalke 042 - 0Mainz
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
SportyBet1X2away2.3542.5%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.7426.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home3.0632.7%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.6162.1%16 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.4041.7%16 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 15:53 UTC