| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Away win | 58.6% | 13% | +45.3% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Draw or away | 81.9% | 30% | +52.3% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Away (DNB) | 74.3% | 16% | +58.7% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.0% | 76% | -29.8% | ✓ hit |
| BTTS | BTTS yes | 46.6% | no line | ✓ hit |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 17.3% | 21.0% | 61.7% |
| xgboost | 29.5% | 29.9% | 40.6% |
| logistic | 25.6% | 27.8% | 46.6% |
| Barnsley | Leeds | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1452 | 1754 |
| Surface Elo | 1452 | 1754 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.40 | 1.80 |
| Form trend | 0.70 | 0.20 |
| Season points per game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals for / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Rest days | 3 | 2 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 0 W | 4 W · 0 D |
| 19 Sep | H | Leicester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 19 Sep | H | Leicester | 1 - 1 | D |
| 12 Sep | A | Plymouth | 0 - 3 | L |
| 05 Sep | H | Stevenage | 1 - 5 | L |
| 02 Sep | H | Blackpool | 2 - 1 | W |
| 20 Sep | H | Crystal Palace | 0 - 0 | D |
| 14 Sep | H | Newcastle | 4 - 1 | W |
| 05 Sep | A | Brighton | 1 - 1 | D |
| 30 Aug | H | Brentford | 1 - 1 | D |
| 22 Aug | A | Nottingham Forest | 1 - 0 | W |
| 16 Jul 2020 | Leeds | 1 - 0 | Barnsley |
| 15 Sep 2019 | Barnsley | 0 - 2 | Leeds |
| 21 Apr 2018 | Leeds | 2 - 1 | Barnsley |
| 25 Nov 2017 | Barnsley | 0 - 2 | Leeds |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 8.25 | 12.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 6.20 | 16.1% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 1.27 | 78.7% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 1.31 | 76.3% | 22 Sep 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 3.40 | 29.4% | 22 Sep 06:15 |