OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-10-11
⚽ Serie B · Sunday 11 October 2026, 13:00 UTC · finished
Catanzaro 0.60 1 - 3 2.20 Mantova
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 47.0%44%+3.5%✗ miss
DCHome or away 75.0%76%-1.3%✓ hit
DNBHome (DNB) 60.2%61%-1.0%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Over 2.5 57.0%56%+0.8%✓ hit
BTTSBTTS yes 54.0%no line✓ hit
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson51.7%24.4%23.9%
xgboost31.9%29.3%38.7%
logistic39.9%28.8%31.3%
Inputs the models saw
CatanzaroMantova
Elo (pre-match)14421483
Surface Elo14421483
Form, last 5 (PPG)0.602.20
Form trend-0.300.40
Season points per game0.602.20
Season goals for / game1.002.00
Season goals against / game1.801.00
Rest days2120
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W0 W · 2 D
Catanzaro: last 5
10 OctACosenza2 - 0W
19 SepASampdoria1 - 2L
19 SepASampdoria Genoa1 - 2L
12 SepHCarrarese1 - 0W
05 SepASudtirol0 - 2L
Mantova: last 5
20 SepHPisa2 - 2D
20 SepHPisa2 - 2D
13 SepHSampdoria2 - 0W
06 SepACesena1 - 1D
30 AugHEmpoli3 - 1W
Head to head
14 Feb 2026Catanzaro2 - 0Mantova
29 Oct 2025Mantova1 - 3Catanzaro
13 May 2025Mantova0 - 0Catanzaro
23 Nov 2024Catanzaro2 - 2Mantova
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.3030.3%11 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2draw3.1032.3%11 Oct 14:00
Bet3651X2home2.1546.5%11 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5over1.8554.0%11 Oct 14:00
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.9551.3%11 Oct 14:00
SportyBet1X2away3.0033.3%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3330.0%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3542.5%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over1.7856.2%11 Oct 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under2.0050.0%11 Oct 06:15
Generated 2026-10-30 19:21 UTC