OgaOods

form, quantified · picks with an edge
Back to ⚽ Football on 2026-11-07
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Championship · Saturday 07 November 2026, 12:30 UTC · finished
Portsmouth 2.20 1 - 2 2.00 Stoke
Our markets (latest run)
MarketMost likelyModelBookmakerEdgeResult
1X2Home win 46.8%44%+2.8%✗ miss
DCHome or draw 74.8%74%+0.4%✗ miss
DNBHome (DNB) 63.6%62%+1.8%✗ miss
O/U 2.5Under 2.5 54.5%60%-5.0%✗ miss
BTTSBTTS no 52.0%no line✗ miss
Model breakdown (1X2)
ModelHomeDrawAway
poisson40.9%28.6%30.5%
xgboost47.0%28.5%24.5%
logistic48.3%27.3%24.3%
Inputs the models saw
PortsmouthStoke
Elo (pre-match)15771543
Surface Elo15771543
Form, last 5 (PPG)2.202.00
Form trend0.00-0.60
Season points per game1.571.86
Season goals for / game1.361.57
Season goals against / game1.141.21
Rest days33
Head-to-head (last 10)2 W2 W · 0 D
Portsmouth: last 5
03 NovHSwansea3 - 1W
03 NovHSwansea3 - 1W
31 OctABurnley0 - 0D
31 OctABurnley0 - 0D
24 OctHMillwall2 - 1W
Stoke: last 5
03 NovABlackburn2 - 1W
03 NovABlackburn2 - 1W
03 NovAGateshead1 - 3L
31 OctALeeds2 - 2D
31 OctHPreston2 - 0W
Head to head
25 Apr 2026Stoke1 - 3Portsmouth
25 Oct 2025Portsmouth0 - 1Stoke
22 Jan 2025Portsmouth3 - 1Stoke
02 Oct 2024Stoke6 - 1Portsmouth
Bookmaker lines
BookMarketOutcomeOddsImpliedAs of
Bet3651X2away3.1032.3%07 Nov 12:30
Bet3651X2draw3.1032.3%07 Nov 12:30
Bet3651X2home2.3243.1%07 Nov 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5over2.3842.0%07 Nov 12:30
Bet365O/U 2.5under1.5763.7%07 Nov 12:30
SportyBet1X2away3.3729.7%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2draw3.3429.9%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBet1X2home2.3043.5%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5over2.2544.4%07 Nov 06:15
SportyBetO/U 2.5under1.6959.2%07 Nov 06:15
Generated 2026-11-12 22:03 UTC