| Market | Most likely | Model | Bookmaker | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Home win | 48.4% | 48% | +0.2% | ✓ hit |
| DC | Home or draw | 76.3% | 79% | -3.1% | ✓ hit |
| DNB | Home (DNB) | 64.3% | 68% | -3.2% | ✓ hit |
| O/U 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 58.3% | 60% | -1.4% | ✗ miss |
| BTTS | BTTS no | 53.1% | no line | ✗ miss |
| Model | Home | Draw | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| poisson | 46.5% | 29.4% | 24.1% |
| xgboost | 47.6% | 26.5% | 25.9% |
| logistic | 43.2% | 29.1% | 27.6% |
| Brescia | Cittadella | |
|---|---|---|
| Elo (pre-match) | 1447 | 1380 |
| Surface Elo | 1447 | 1380 |
| Form, last 5 (PPG) | 1.60 | 0.80 |
| Form trend | -0.40 | -0.30 |
| Season points per game | 1.60 | 2.40 |
| Season goals for / game | 2.00 | 1.60 |
| Season goals against / game | 1.00 | 0.40 |
| Rest days | 528 | 528 |
| Head-to-head (last 10) | 2 W | 4 W · 4 D |
| 19 Oct | A | AS Giana Erminio | 1 - 2 | L |
| 09 Oct | H | Pro Vercelli | 2 - 0 | W |
| 04 Oct | A | Lecco | 2 - 2 | D |
| 27 Sep | H | Dolomiti Bellunesi | 1 - 1 | D |
| 20 Sep | A | Alcione Milano | 4 - 0 | W |
| 24 Oct | H | Padova | 0 - 2 | L |
| 19 Oct | H | FC Arzignano Valchiampo | 1 - 0 | W |
| 10 Oct | A | Novara | 2 - 0 | W |
| 03 Oct | H | US Albinoleffe | 1 - 2 | L |
| 26 Sep | H | Lecco | 3 - 0 | W |
| 01 May 2025 | Cittadella | 0 - 1 | Brescia |
| 24 Aug 2024 | Brescia | 0 - 1 | Cittadella |
| 03 Feb 2024 | Brescia | 2 - 0 | Cittadella |
| 04 Nov 2023 | Cittadella | 3 - 2 | Brescia |
| 01 Mar 2023 | Cittadella | 0 - 0 | Brescia |
| 08 Oct 2022 | Brescia | 1 - 1 | Cittadella |
| 30 Apr 2022 | Cittadella | 1 - 0 | Brescia |
| 19 Dec 2021 | Brescia | 1 - 1 | Cittadella |
| 06 Feb 2021 | Brescia | 3 - 3 | Cittadella |
| 04 Oct 2020 | Cittadella | 3 - 0 | Brescia |
| Book | Market | Outcome | Odds | Implied | As of |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SportyBet | 1X2 | away | 3.60 | 27.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | draw | 3.25 | 30.8% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | 1X2 | home | 2.00 | 50.0% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | over | 2.10 | 47.6% | 24 Oct 06:15 |
| SportyBet | O/U 2.5 | under | 1.68 | 59.5% | 24 Oct 06:15 |